Primary Weigh-in -- Spoke Too Soon

As I watched the results come in from the Democratic primary, I had to wonder what had happened to those polls showing Obama with a substantial lead: Had his supporters thought it was in the bag and gotten complacent? Had too many independents decided to vote for McCain in what figured to be a closer race? Had those contrarian New Hampshireites simply decided they weren't going to let Iowa and the media tell them who they were gonna vote for? Had Hillary's "tearing up" moment, which I can't help but see as at least partially calculated, actually succeeded in swaying voters to her cause?

Well, the dissection continues, and other theories have been floated (including what may be the most troubling: the so-called Bradley Effect), but in any case it seems likely that a number of factors came together to give Clinton a thin win after a fat victory had been predicted for Obama. And so, it looks like I may have spoken too soon in my previous post. That said, I think Obama's chances are still quite good, but things definitely look a lot tougher than they would have if Clinton had been sent reeling by back-to-back losses. Now, instead of a virtual cakewalk to the nomination, Obama looks to have a much tougher road ahead, and there is a significant chance that Hillary could be the nominee instead.

I can't help but think that that would be a terrible mistake on the part of Democrats. While I do believe that even Hillary ought to be able to beat the Republican nominee, I think there would be a much greater risk that she wouldn't, given the extreme antipathy she generates among most Republicans and even some independents. What's more, while I don't think there are huge policy differences between her and Obama, I think that an Obama presidency would do a lot more to repair America's image around the world and speak more directly to some of the things that are genuinely good about this country and the way it works.

So, will Democratic voters see it that way? I certainly hope so, but it's up to Obama and his people to make that case. It shouldn't be too difficult. After all, he was the one who got unprecented numbers of young people to caucus in Iowa, and he was the one who got tremendous support from independents both there and in New Hampshire. Clearly, he is the one who inspires the broadest range of voters, and therefore the Democrat with the best chance of taking the presidency in a general election.

That said, as Mayor Quimby once noted, and as the voters of New Hampshire so recently proved, people really are just "a bunch of fickle mushheads." It remains to be seen, then, whether primary voters in the rest of the country will see the light. I think Obama still has a good shot at taking Nevada and (even moreso) South Carolina, which would give him some advantage heading into Super Tuesday. But even if he does take both of those, I certainly won't be counting any more chickens before they're hatched. That, above all, is the lesson of New Hampshire.