As I watched the results come in from the Democratic primary, I had to wonder what had happened to those polls showing Obama with a substantial lead: Had his supporters thought it was in the bag and gotten complacent? Had too many independents decided to vote for McCain in what figured to be a closer race? Had those contrarian New Hampshireites simply decided they weren't going to let Iowa and the media tell them who they were gonna vote for? Had Hillary's "tearing up" moment, which I can't help but see as at least partially calculated, actually succeeded in swaying voters to her cause?
Well, the dissection continues, and other theories have been floated (including what may be the most troubling: the so-called Bradley Effect), but in any case it seems likely that a number of factors came together to give Clinton a thin win after a fat victory had been predicted for Obama. And so, it looks like I may have spoken too soon in my previous post. That said, I think Obama's chances are still quite good, but things definitely look a lot tougher than they would have if Clinton had been sent reeling by back-to-back losses. Now, instead of a virtual cakewalk to the nomination, Obama looks to have a much tougher road ahead, and there is a significant chance that Hillary could be the nominee instead.
I can't help but think that that would be a terrible mistake on the part of Democrats. While I do believe that even Hillary ought to be able to beat the Republican nominee, I think there would be a much greater risk that she wouldn't, given the extreme antipathy she generates among most Republicans and even some independents. What's more, while I don't think there are huge policy differences between her and Obama, I think that an Obama presidency would do a lot more to repair America's image around the world and speak more directly to some of the things that are genuinely good about this country and the way it works.
So, will Democratic voters see it that way? I certainly hope so, but it's up to Obama and his people to make that case. It shouldn't be too difficult. After all, he was the one who got unprecented numbers of young people to caucus in Iowa, and he was the one who got tremendous support from independents both there and in New Hampshire. Clearly, he is the one who inspires the broadest range of voters, and therefore the Democrat with the best chance of taking the presidency in a general election.
That said, as Mayor Quimby once noted, and as the voters of New Hampshire so recently proved, people really are just "a bunch of fickle mushheads." It remains to be seen, then, whether primary voters in the rest of the country will see the light. I think Obama still has a good shot at taking Nevada and (even moreso) South Carolina, which would give him some advantage heading into Super Tuesday. But even if he does take both of those, I certainly won't be counting any more chickens before they're hatched. That, above all, is the lesson of New Hampshire.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Weekly Weigh-in -- The Next President?
So, that Iowa vote was pretty cool, no? I mean, you might've gathered that I'm just a tad cynical about the politics, but I gotta admit there's something kinda, ahem, uplifting about a half-African progressive trouncing the field in a state that's -- what? -- 95% white. And doing it with loads of independents and, better yet, young people.
That last point, though it has been mentioned some, really has gotten short shrift from the MSM coverage that I've seen. After all, since I've been alive, I can't recall a single close election where us young folks (and I think I can still barely say "us" :) didn't seem to have a preference for one candidate, but then got crapped on by everyone b/c we couldn't tear ourselves away from the Xbox to vote for, say, freakin' John Kerry. But in Iowa, it sounds like the youth vote really turned out in droves, not merely for a simple, standard-type vote, but for the absurdly long and messy caucus business. That's huge, and to the extent that it gets the ball rolling, it may just prove to have been a decisive factor in choosing the next president.
Not that I'm one of these people who seem to want to regard Obama as some sort of black messiah. Far from it -- he is a pol, after all, and therefore has to automatically be regarded with some suspicion. Certainly, like all of them, I don't doubt that he's done some double-talking, been a hypocrite here and there, or that he hasn't got a skeleton or two in his closet (main thing I've heard thus far was an overly cozy-sounding real estate deal, though that does seem pretty small-time for the avg. candidate). . .
But, in a relative sense, it's hard to deny that's there's something special about the guy, even if in large part it comes down to charisma and the symbolism of what a win for him would mean. His candidacy is truly a phenomenon of sorts at this point, and genuinely unlike anything I've ever seen in the American political world.
But the question remains: can he be stopped? Frankly, I doubt it very much. Certainly, New Hampshire is the last chance for Clinton to save herself -- if she loses there, it's almost impossible to imagine her winning in South Carolina since about half of its Dem voters are black. (And while Clinton can maybe take Nevada -- I really don't know cos I ain't heard much about it -- I get the impression that it doesn't matter too much.) And if she's lost in Iowa, NH, and SC, I think she gets wiped out on Super Tuesday.
So, again, can she win NH? Maybe. The latest polls still show her with a slim lead there, but they were conducted largely before the Iowa result. There's no question that Iowa will give a big boost to Obama, and they're close enough already that it should give him more than enough to deal Clinton's campaign an effectively fatal blow. That is, of course, unless he cocks it up badly somehow in tonight's debate, which I think is extremely unlikely.
In the end, it seems to have come down to this: people just don't like Hilary that much -- she's not gonna inspire people to vote who otherwise might not -- and the opposite is true of Obama. Once it got close in Iowa and he proved that he had a legitimate shot of beating her, people began to rush to support him whilst shrugging their shoulders about her.
So yeah, huge odds on Obama being the Democratic nominee.
As for the Republicans? Well, things remain pretty unclear there. Certainly, I wasn't surprised to see the Huck-ba-crite take Iowa. Don't think he has much chance in NH, which puts it down to McCain or Romney. If the latter loses there -- and my hunch is that he will after the drubbing in Iowa -- it's over for him. But that would leave McCain, the Huckster, and Mayor 9/11 all with some shot at it. As I've said before, I think the bible-thumper would have the inside track there, but it's hard to say for sure at this point.
And would Obama beat any of those guys? I'd give him good odds, for sure, at this point. 'Course, the general election campaign will be a long one, so lots of stuff could happen to change the calculus, but barring any major gaffes on his part or some crazy geo-political event or what not, I'd say he could pretty much walk away with it. That is, of course, unless I've underestimated the latent racism of the American electorate or its ability to be duped by ridiculous cheap shots (granted, one's estimation of the morality and intelligence of John Q. Public is one of those things I've found it's almost impossible to be too cynical about), but I have to think my estimate is close enough.
'Course, someone might shoot him or something -- certainly wouldn't put it past some troglodyte to try -- but I gotta hope that the Secret Service et al. are taking that threat as seriously as they should and will be able to do what's necessary to prevent it.
So right. . . Barack Obama -- the next president(?)
That last point, though it has been mentioned some, really has gotten short shrift from the MSM coverage that I've seen. After all, since I've been alive, I can't recall a single close election where us young folks (and I think I can still barely say "us" :) didn't seem to have a preference for one candidate, but then got crapped on by everyone b/c we couldn't tear ourselves away from the Xbox to vote for, say, freakin' John Kerry. But in Iowa, it sounds like the youth vote really turned out in droves, not merely for a simple, standard-type vote, but for the absurdly long and messy caucus business. That's huge, and to the extent that it gets the ball rolling, it may just prove to have been a decisive factor in choosing the next president.
Not that I'm one of these people who seem to want to regard Obama as some sort of black messiah. Far from it -- he is a pol, after all, and therefore has to automatically be regarded with some suspicion. Certainly, like all of them, I don't doubt that he's done some double-talking, been a hypocrite here and there, or that he hasn't got a skeleton or two in his closet (main thing I've heard thus far was an overly cozy-sounding real estate deal, though that does seem pretty small-time for the avg. candidate). . .
But, in a relative sense, it's hard to deny that's there's something special about the guy, even if in large part it comes down to charisma and the symbolism of what a win for him would mean. His candidacy is truly a phenomenon of sorts at this point, and genuinely unlike anything I've ever seen in the American political world.
But the question remains: can he be stopped? Frankly, I doubt it very much. Certainly, New Hampshire is the last chance for Clinton to save herself -- if she loses there, it's almost impossible to imagine her winning in South Carolina since about half of its Dem voters are black. (And while Clinton can maybe take Nevada -- I really don't know cos I ain't heard much about it -- I get the impression that it doesn't matter too much.) And if she's lost in Iowa, NH, and SC, I think she gets wiped out on Super Tuesday.
So, again, can she win NH? Maybe. The latest polls still show her with a slim lead there, but they were conducted largely before the Iowa result. There's no question that Iowa will give a big boost to Obama, and they're close enough already that it should give him more than enough to deal Clinton's campaign an effectively fatal blow. That is, of course, unless he cocks it up badly somehow in tonight's debate, which I think is extremely unlikely.
In the end, it seems to have come down to this: people just don't like Hilary that much -- she's not gonna inspire people to vote who otherwise might not -- and the opposite is true of Obama. Once it got close in Iowa and he proved that he had a legitimate shot of beating her, people began to rush to support him whilst shrugging their shoulders about her.
So yeah, huge odds on Obama being the Democratic nominee.
As for the Republicans? Well, things remain pretty unclear there. Certainly, I wasn't surprised to see the Huck-ba-crite take Iowa. Don't think he has much chance in NH, which puts it down to McCain or Romney. If the latter loses there -- and my hunch is that he will after the drubbing in Iowa -- it's over for him. But that would leave McCain, the Huckster, and Mayor 9/11 all with some shot at it. As I've said before, I think the bible-thumper would have the inside track there, but it's hard to say for sure at this point.
And would Obama beat any of those guys? I'd give him good odds, for sure, at this point. 'Course, the general election campaign will be a long one, so lots of stuff could happen to change the calculus, but barring any major gaffes on his part or some crazy geo-political event or what not, I'd say he could pretty much walk away with it. That is, of course, unless I've underestimated the latent racism of the American electorate or its ability to be duped by ridiculous cheap shots (granted, one's estimation of the morality and intelligence of John Q. Public is one of those things I've found it's almost impossible to be too cynical about), but I have to think my estimate is close enough.
'Course, someone might shoot him or something -- certainly wouldn't put it past some troglodyte to try -- but I gotta hope that the Secret Service et al. are taking that threat as seriously as they should and will be able to do what's necessary to prevent it.
So right. . . Barack Obama -- the next president(?)
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