Yes, as this nomination thing really comes to head here, I think it's fair to say that my prognostications of only two months ago may prove to be way way off. Then again, that was what a lot of people were thinking, and, while the rather distasteful general election contest I then saw as likely may not come to pass, I do think I'd picked up on a few of the things that might keep it from doing so.
But let's get specific, shall we? In short, Clinton and Giuliani's respective roads to a nominationjust look a heck of a lot less clear than they did back then. Indeed, they look downright treacherous. In fact, the way things look now, I'd say there's a pretty solid chance that ol' Rudy will be nothing but an afterthought in a month or two. Put simply, it seems like his somewhat odious personal life, coupled with the fact that he wasn't much of a blood-red Republican anyway (oh, and maybe that the whole terrorism/war issue, upon which almost all of his supposed appeal was based, has, somewhat inexplicably, become far less of an important issue for primary voters), has finally caught up with him, and a month or two too soon for his lofty ambitions. Of course, his strategy for a while has been to ignore the first state or two and hope that no one else can pick up the momentum from wins there to stop him in bigger states where he was (until recently, at least) more popular than all the other contenders. And, that might yet work, but, given the way he's been sinking like a rock, polling wise, in even those states (Florida, for example) suggests that he will not be saved by them.
But, then again, things are still incredibly fluid in the whole Republican race. As there were hints of even back in October, the Right-wingers have been rushing towards Huckabee as he seems to be the only semi-viable option who isn't Giuliani, the Mormon, McCain, or some other RINO ("Republican in Name Only"). At least in Iowa, that is. There, I think it will be extremely difficult for Romney to stop Huckabee's surge, especially if he keeps making mistakes -- like saying he "saw" his father march with Martin Luther King, and then having to say he meant "saw" in a "figurative" sense because, well, that probably never really happened -- that point out the fact that he's, y'know, a liar. So, yeah, I see Huckabee taking Iowa pretty convincingly, in spite of the numerous negative stories that are now starting to surface about him (more on that later).
But, apparently the good people of New Hampshire don't have much use for Bible-thumping hicks, so Huckabee doesn't look like he's got a great shot there (unless, of course, he gets a huge boost from an Iowa win). As it stands, Romney still has the lead in polls in the Granite State. But, who's that, roaring up on the outside?! . . . Why, it's 98-years-young John McCain, making a last-ditch sprint for the prize that his, ahem, illegitimate black baby (Karl Rove was the mother -- go figure) kept him from claiming way back in 2000. Seems that with Romney faltering, folks who don't find the Huck-ba-crite too appealing are now giving the old man a seventh look. Coluld it be that he will ride a second New Hampshire win all the way to the White House? Well, probably not, but in any case, it looks fairly likely that the winner of Iowa and New Hampshire will not be one and the same individual, which suggests that things on the Republican side could remain up in the air for quite some time. And so, there might yet be some hope for hizonner Giuliani's big-state plan yet.
But, that's not what I'm predicitng (yes, I still dare to hazard wild, meaningless guesses). No, I think that, as nasty as he apparently is himself, and as unlikely as it might have seemed only few months ago, good ol' Mike "Gomer" Huckabee, will probably get the nomination, if only because I can't imagine any of the other contenders, with all their flaws (both utterly real and simply "in the eyes of" typical Republican voters), being able to stop his momentum. He is, far more than any of the others, truly one of them . . . even if he has helped release a murderer from prison, taken money from cigarette makers while in office (uh, see that same link above), helped protect his son from getting prosecuted for animal cruelty, helped a drunk driver get out of jail in exchange for political donations, and . . . well, the list, apparently, goes on and on. But golly, he shure does love him some Jesus, so, y'know, he's basically the perfect Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, things are almost as wacky with the Dummocrats (heh heh, "Dummocrats") . . . Seems like the once "inevitable" Hillary is suddenly looking a lot more evitable. Indeed, she just may not come out of Iowa with a win. Obama has surged, and what's even wackier, even John Edwards looks to have a pretty good shot -- in the Buckeye state, at least (and if he can win there, well, who knows?). In short, it's looking like a three-way race down to the wire, after Hillary had a huge lead only a couple months ago. As it is, I'd say her odds of still getting the nomination are considerably better than Giuliani's, but that said, I wouldn't say they're significantly better than Obama's or more than mildly better than Edwards' at this point. She's been trending downward recently, while the two guys have been on the rise. She may be able to halt her slide sufficiently to pull it out, but frankly, I hope not. I think both Edwards and Obama would be better candidates in a general election, and since my main hope (such as it is) is that one Dummocrat or another will win next November, I've definitely got a preference for those two.
The good news, far as that goes, and as I've noted before, is that I don't think the eventual Republican winner, whoever it may be, will have good odds of beating the eventual Dem nom, whoever that is. And that includes the Huck-ba-crite, especially as the aforementioned skeletons would get far more scrutiny in the long, long general campaign. That said, I would definitely feel a lot more relaxed about things if it's Obama or Edwards against Huckabee or whoever, given Hillary's own extremely high negatives.
In any case, the one thing I'm certain of, with only a week and a half to go before Iowa votes, is that no prediction at this point would be anything but guesswork. It is just too jumbled up to say anything with much certainty. Which, when it comes to the flaming-car-crash spectacle that is politics, should make things fairly exciting in the weeks to come.
My own preference, to say it again, would be for an Obama-McCain matchup (especially since McCain, for all his past hypocrisies, is the only Republican contender I could actually stomach being the next president -- though my gut has built up an incredibly strong tolerance in the last few years for some reason), but I guess I'll just have to call that an Xmas wish at this point.
And that being said, I think I'll hold off on commenting further on the whole wacky process, at least until after the Iowa results come in. In the meantime, I just wanna sit back and watch the flaming wreckage :^) . . .
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